Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 12.041680 14.726376 17.719473 21.282353 25.385624 29.940765 35.356688
2026-01-11 8.326723 11.786656 16.075419 21.687734 28.736634 37.192187 47.988051
2026-01-18 6.355098 10.119943 15.189854 22.309903 31.823903 43.861183 59.976240
2026-01-25 4.755897 8.465767 13.858120 21.920358 33.280785 48.306480 69.212434
2026-02-01 3.786835 7.457350 13.165494 22.169315 35.428667 53.608697 79.690258
2026-02-08 2.924765 6.391613 12.162308 21.752526 36.479722 57.359851 88.166081
2026-02-15 2.232980 5.432308 11.134217 21.104358 37.036800 60.341445 95.619678
2026-02-22 1.886313 5.023849 10.939621 21.714113 39.478158 66.094699 107.182237
2026-03-01 1.488320 4.399762 10.248495 21.387767 40.380048 69.570801 115.563367
2026-03-08 1.211882 3.958499 9.812307 21.423343 41.820824 73.879955 125.296715
2026-03-15 0.908600 3.351456 8.936040 20.544389 41.638413 75.628370 131.218836
2026-03-22 0.781580 3.156966 8.871584 21.151788 43.998693 81.449187 143.520956
2026-03-29 0.635556 2.873505 8.600509 21.401054 45.878267 86.799799 155.663534
2026-04-05 0.521912 2.644065 8.413997 21.805426 48.082247 92.825102 169.182134
2026-04-12 0.438770 2.478025 8.343502 22.430042 50.715854 99.666140 184.236360
2026-04-19 0.330934 2.162162 7.828487 22.038832 51.405036 103.248952 194.172756
2026-04-26 0.266666 1.980421 7.622617 22.288844 53.314464 108.974378 207.767080
2026-05-03 0.197600 1.725709 7.151824 21.870286 53.869663 112.352030 217.590817
2026-05-10 0.140020 1.473176 6.617007 21.219352 53.889929 114.758316 225.848046
2026-05-17 0.116849 1.395718 6.605607 21.831709 56.518049 121.920614 242.332372
2026-05-24 0.084782 1.223694 6.238686 21.503972 57.156516 125.491169 252.803090
2026-05-31 0.064212 1.106461 6.025651 21.539701 58.555743 130.498028 265.880227
2026-06-07 0.040928 0.920008 5.497477 20.656979 57.890292 131.618626 272.225043